XII
Detailed Valuation Scenarios
================================================================================ VALUATION SCENARIOS - DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW (DCF) ANALYSIS ================================================================================ Using default growth rates due to calculation error: '>' not supported between instances of 'NoneType' and 'int' Stock: NU Current Price: $15.00 Shares Outstanding: 4.88B (4,881,333,333 shares) Base Year FCF (FY 2025): $8.5B (from financial statements) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEAR CASE (Probability: 25%) Conservative: Below-trend growth, elevated risk premium, modest recession impact ASSUMPTIONS: • FCF Growth Rate (Years 1-10): 3.0% • Discount Rate (WACC): 12.0% • Terminal Growth Rate: 2.0% 10-YEAR FCF PROJECTION: Year FCF ($M) PV Factor PV of FCF ($M) ------------------------------------------------------------ 1 $8,756,660,360 0.8929 $7,818,446,750 2 $9,019,360,171 0.7972 $7,190,178,708 3 $9,289,940,976 0.7118 $6,612,396,490 4 $9,568,639,205 0.6355 $6,081,043,201 5 $9,855,698,381 0.5674 $5,592,387,943 6 $10,151,369,333 0.5066 $5,142,999,627 7 $10,455,910,413 0.4523 $4,729,722,871 8 $10,769,587,725 0.4039 $4,349,655,854 9 $11,092,675,357 0.3606 $4,000,129,938 10 $11,425,455,618 0.3220 $3,678,690,925 ------------------------------------------------------------ Total PV of 10-Year FCF: $55,195,652,306 TERMINAL VALUE: • Year 11 FCF: $11,653,964,730 • Terminal Value: $116,539,647,300 • PV of Terminal Value: $37,522,647,432 VALUATION SUMMARY: • Enterprise Value: $92.7B • Less: Total Debt: $0.0B • Plus: Cash & Equivalents: $0.0B • Equity Value: $92.7B • Shares Outstanding: 4.88B • Intrinsic Value per Share: $18.99 • Current Price: $15.00 • Upside/Downside: +26.6% • Margin of Safety: 21.0% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BASE CASE (Probability: 50%) Balanced: Sustainable growth trajectory, market-appropriate discount rate, realistic perpetuity assumptions ASSUMPTIONS: • FCF Growth Rate (Years 1-10): 7.0% • Discount Rate (WACC): 10.0% • Terminal Growth Rate: 2.5% 10-YEAR FCF PROJECTION: Year FCF ($M) PV Factor PV of FCF ($M) ------------------------------------------------------------ 1 $9,096,724,840 0.9091 $8,269,749,855 2 $9,733,495,579 0.8264 $8,044,211,222 3 $10,414,840,269 0.7513 $7,824,823,643 4 $11,143,879,088 0.6830 $7,611,419,362 5 $11,923,950,624 0.6209 $7,403,835,198 6 $12,758,627,168 0.5645 $7,201,912,420 7 $13,651,731,070 0.5132 $7,005,496,626 8 $14,607,352,245 0.4665 $6,814,437,627 9 $15,629,866,902 0.4241 $6,628,589,329 10 $16,723,957,585 0.3855 $6,447,809,620 ------------------------------------------------------------ Total PV of 10-Year FCF: $73,252,284,902 TERMINAL VALUE: • Year 11 FCF: $17,142,056,525 • Terminal Value: $228,560,753,661 • PV of Terminal Value: $88,120,064,801 VALUATION SUMMARY: • Enterprise Value: $161.4B • Less: Total Debt: $0.0B • Plus: Cash & Equivalents: $0.0B • Equity Value: $161.4B • Shares Outstanding: 4.88B • Intrinsic Value per Share: $33.06 • Current Price: $15.00 • Upside/Downside: +120.4% • Margin of Safety: 54.6% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BULL CASE (Probability: 25%) Optimistic: Strong execution, market share gains, operating leverage, sustained competitive advantages ASSUMPTIONS: • FCF Growth Rate (Years 1-10): 12.0% • Discount Rate (WACC): 9.0% • Terminal Growth Rate: 3.0% 10-YEAR FCF PROJECTION: Year FCF ($M) PV Factor PV of FCF ($M) ------------------------------------------------------------ 1 $9,521,805,440 0.9174 $8,735,601,321 2 $10,664,422,093 0.8417 $8,976,030,715 3 $11,944,152,744 0.7722 $9,223,077,432 4 $13,377,451,073 0.7084 $9,476,923,600 5 $14,982,745,202 0.6499 $9,737,756,360 6 $16,780,674,626 0.5963 $10,005,768,003 7 $18,794,355,581 0.5470 $10,281,156,113 8 $21,049,678,251 0.5019 $10,564,123,712 9 $23,575,639,641 0.4604 $10,854,879,411 10 $26,404,716,398 0.4224 $11,153,637,560 ------------------------------------------------------------ Total PV of 10-Year FCF: $99,008,954,226 TERMINAL VALUE: • Year 11 FCF: $27,196,857,890 • Terminal Value: $453,280,964,836 • PV of Terminal Value: $191,470,778,107 VALUATION SUMMARY: • Enterprise Value: $290.5B • Less: Total Debt: $0.0B • Plus: Cash & Equivalents: $0.0B • Equity Value: $290.5B • Shares Outstanding: 4.88B • Intrinsic Value per Share: $59.51 • Current Price: $15.00 • Upside/Downside: +296.7% • Margin of Safety: 74.8% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================================ SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS - Intrinsic Value per Share ================================================================================ How intrinsic value changes with different growth and discount rates: Growth → 3% 5% 8% 10% 12% 15% WACC ↓ ------------------------------------------------------------------ 8% $ 34↑ $ 39↑ $ 50↑ $ 58↑ $ 68↑ $ 86↑ 9% $ 29↑ $ 33↑ $ 42↑ $ 48↑ $ 56↑ $ 71↑ 10% $ 25↑ $ 29↑ $ 36↑ $ 41↑ $ 48↑ $ 60↑ 11% $ 22↑ $ 25↑ $ 31↑ $ 36↑ $ 41↑ $ 51↑ 12% $ 19 $ 22↑ $ 27↑ $ 31↑ $ 36↑ $ 45↑ Current Price: $15.00 Base FCF: $8.5B Terminal Growth: 2.5% (constant) Legend: ↑ = 30%+ upside | ↓ = 10%+ downside ================================================================================ ================================================================================ PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED VALUATION ================================================================================ Bear Case (18.99) × 25% = $4.75 Base Case (33.06) × 50% = $16.53 Bull Case (59.51) × 25% = $14.88 ======================================== Weighted Average Intrinsic Value: $36.16 Current Price: $15.00 Upside/Downside: +141.0% Margin of Safety: 58.5% ================================================================================